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Business Forecasting and Innovation

Business Organizations, whether small or giant companies, use their intelligent personnel to constantly work on forecasting the future to live in this competitive world. Every process, and any decision that they involve in is based on some sort of forecasting to support their work (Landau, 2018). Companies spend significant time to understand their problem in order to predict possible solutions to help them set successful in their long-term strategies. Some forecasts depend on advanced statistical techniques; some are based on their prior experience, while others simply consider their gut feeling scenario. All in common is that they are doing business forecasting. Business forecasting is a method to predict the future of economic conditions (Landau, 2018).  It involves using information gathered from past conditions, and current economy to predict future conditions for a business. Business forecasting is more critical when the future is uncertain. The more the business intelligences give attention on the possible outcome, the more success the business has as it goes forward.  

There are several methods to approach business forecasting such qualitative, quantitative methods. Some of the more common forecasting models are:

• Qualitative Forecasting: It is conducted using opinions and judgement of clients and experts. This type of business forecasting is important if one has not enough historical data to conduct any statistically relevant inferences. This is also useful forecasting when there is little to known about the future of an industry. 
• Quantitative Forecasting: This is pertinent when there is sufficient and accurate historical data available to forecast the likelihood of future events. This method considers the patterns of the data trends in order to foresee any probable outcomes. Data may include such as sales numbers, expertly collected data, census data, etc. Quantitative forecasting analyses variables to examine cause and effect relationships that can be used to the profit of the business.
• The Average Approach: The average approach states that the predictions of all future values are equal to the mean of the historical data and it is like quantitative forecasting. 
• The Naïve Approach: This is the most affordable and is usually considered as a benchmark to compare against more other advanced methods. It is only applicable for time series data, in which forecasts are made which are equal to the last observed value. This approach is very vital in industries or organizations where past patterns are improbable to be replicated in the future.

Future forecasting such as Predicting that the United States would someday have an African-American president with the name of  President "Obomi" in 1969 in a fiction called “Stand on Zanzibar”, 40 years before it happens; forecasting self-death  by Mark Twain in 1909 are hard to believe and feel like they are coincidence. However, such as the invention of internet might have been thought due to some driving forces that were observed within the communities at the then time. Possibilities of ‘internet’ was first dreamed by Mark Twain in 1898 in his short story called “telelectroscope" which was like the phone system to form a global network for sharing information (Larkin, 2019).This innovation probably was thought due to a wish of interconnecting the societal information instead of just using those traditional communication such as by sending people to a physical location to deliver messages that would take so much time and impossible when the location is far of the reach.  

• Landau, P., (2018). Business Forecasting: Why You Need It & How to Do It. 

https://www.projectmanager.com/blog/business-forecasting

• Larkin, B., (2019). 30 Predictions in History That Came True.  https://bestlifeonline.com/historical-predictions/.

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·       https://hmpi.org/2017/09/08/scenario-planning-tools-for-organizations-struggling-with-healthcare-reform-uncertainty-the-case-of-oscar-health-insurance/

Scenario Planning versus Forecasting

Scenario planning as explained by Saulsgiver (2018) is defined as “The process of visualizing what future conditions or events are probable, what their consequences or effects would be like, and how to respond to, or benefit from them.” So, scenario planning is to consider historical events as well as current situations in order to see future probable. An example for a scenario as given by Schultz Financial Group is their research on “what would be the economic implications if the United States government defaulted on their debt as government debt grows globally? Though the U.S has never been defaulted on its debt, this is to indicate that the risk of this event grows larger as the debt moves higher globally. The financial group suggested a possible solution that the US need to consider escaping of such risks: That is to print its own money and deflating the U.S dollar. The asset of using scenario planning is its mix methodologies which are qualitative (geopolitical tensions, fiscal policy, etc.) and quantitative (unemployment rate, GDP, etc.) viewpoints to approaching risk management. This helps to view a situation as a top-down/bottom-up approach while observing forward at the future and looking how a proposal might interact with a certain market situation. This makes scenario planning so much more flexible than traditional forecasting methods (Saulsgiver,2018). Although its flexibility, the drawback is that it needs resource and time management to analyze a series of scenarios (Deal, 2019). The process consumes more time, planning, and resources to make sure every aspect is addressed in the planning phase.  

Traditional forecasting, on the hand, is looking at where one is currently leveraging historical observations to estimate the best-case scenario in the future (Deal, 2019). Usually traditional forecasting utilizes historical quantitative methods (Saulsgiver,2018). Such methods predict happenings in the future depending on data from the past and present which makes it very rigid risk management assessment. Models built in this perspective frequently fail to predict a fast and significant changes in market fluctuations. The forecast needs to be articulated in proper values and in time periods which are suitable to the exercise. Values needs to usually be inflation free, like numbers of products, tones or gallons, monetary values as current prices, etc. (Hague, n.d). One of the advantages of using traditional forecasting is its ability of using of percentages (Saulsgiver,2018).  More information collected over time provides an organization to utilize percentage rates to make decisions based on possible outcomes as driven from data. Its disadvantage comes from its rigidity that makes hard to handle business fluctuations.  

 

References:

• Saulsgiver, M., (2018).  Scenario Planning versus Forecasting. https://sfginc.com/scenario-planning-versus-forecasting/
• Deal, J., (2019). Scenario Planning Vs. Traditional Forecasting.   (https://www.n6networks.com/single-post/2019/02/04/scenario-planning-vs-traditional-forecasting).
• Hague, P. (n.d).Forecasting & Scenario Planning (https://www.b2binternational.com/publications/forecasting-scenario-planning/).

 

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-statistics-say-half-of-all-inventions-happen-by-accident

Inventing Accidentally

Introduction

Inventers are those that we regard them with high respect: the bright individuals who imagine that most of us even do not think of (Nield, 2016). However, half of all patented inventions found unpredictably (Nield, 2016). According to Nield (2016) resource, American author Pagan Kennedy, who studied a 2005 survey of patent holders, found that 50% of the patents were found to be a result of "serendipitous" processes that they termed as “happy accidents.” From chocolate Chip Cookies by Ruth Graves Wakefield to champagne by French monk Dom Pierre Perignon, from the Implantable Pacemaker by Wilson Greatbatch to Penicillin by Dr. Alexander Fleming were all accidentally invented. Therefore, several happenings proved that people can invent innovative and new products when they do not even plan for it at all. In the following discussions, I will be discussing about two unexpectedly invented innovations: The Big Bang and X-ray.  

1.       Big Bang

In 1960, astronomers Robert Wilson and Arno Penzias observed some odd and annoying "noise" from their large antenna while seeing the space between galaxies to measuring the brightness of the sky with their radio telescope (McFadden, 2020). They also noted that the strange lively sound seemed to be everywhere they pointed their device. What they had unintentionally tripped upon was the galactic microwave background which is the leftover radiation from the "Big Bang" (McFadden, 2020). They were awarded Nobel Prize for their discovery. Since then, it becomes universally agreed theory that states the universe began 13.8 billion years ago with the Big Bang.

2.       X-ray

German physics professor Wilhelm Röntgen, on November 8, 1895, encountered with X-rays during testing with Crookes and Lenard tubes and started to examine them (Prabhune, 2015). Some confusions happened to exist on his accounts of his invention as his lab note records were burned after his death. It was possibly retrieved through recreation by his biographers. Röntgen was examining cathode rays by utilizing a fluorescent screen painted with barium platinocyanide and a Crookes tube which he had enfolded in black cardboard so that the observable light from the tube would not interfere. Then he observed a faded green spark from the screen, about 1 meter away. He understood some invisible rays souring from the tube were piercing through the cardboard to make the screen glow. Röntgen also found the glow could also pass through papers and books on his desk. It was after that then Röntgen set himself to studying these unknown rays methodically. Exactly after a couple of months of his original discovery, he managed to publish his unexpected invention: The X-ray. 

Conclusion

Necessity has never been the only case for innovation. However, it is sometimes a matter of serendipity. Several of the things we depend on to treat our diseases to heal, instruments that help us to see our world around, the way we prepare our meals, etc. were not created thoughtfully. They were, however, of happy accidents.

Reference

1.       Nield, D., (2016). Statistics Show Half of All Inventions Happen by Accident. https://www.sciencealert.com/the-statistics-say-half-of-all-inventions-happen-by-accident

2.       McFadden, C., (2020). 15 Accidental Science Discoveries That Changed the World.

https://interestingengineering.com/15-accidental-science-discoveries-that-changed-the-world & https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPalHdzsImc&t=84s

3.       Prabhune, A., (2015). 10 Inventions That Changed The World, But Were Made By Mistake.

        https://www.storypick.com/inventions-made-by-mistake/

https://www.dfhcc.harvard.edu/events/detail/event/dfhcc-think-tank-how-can-technology-drive-early-cancer-detection/

Think Tank Methods

Introduction

              The term think tank was originally used in military waffle during World War II to explore a safe place where strategies and plans could be discussed, however its meaning later began to change since 1960s when United States used it to describe private nonprofit policy research organizations (Ladi, 2015). The organizations have also flourished, however, in other industrialized countries, such as Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia. According to Merriam-Webster (n.d.) think tank is defined as an institute, corporation, or group organized to study a subject (such as a policy issue or a scientific problem) and provide information, ideas, and advice. In this discussion we will be looking the concept and type of think tank methods that foster innovation and some key points about each of them.

1.       Concept of think tank methods, or methods that are deliberate and foster innovation

Ladi (2015) explained that think tank can be an institute, corporation, or group organized for interdisciplinary research with the aim of offering advice on a various range of policy issues and products using specialized knowledge and the activation of networks. Think tanks are different from government with many of them are nonprofit institutions but can serve both governmental as well as commercial clients. Examples of projects for government clients usually include planning public policy and national defense whereas for commercial clients include projects such as developing and testing of new technologies or products.

Key Takeaways with Think Tank (Longley, 2020):

·       Think tanks are institutions or organizations with teams that study and report knowledge outputs on a wide range of subjects to either governments, private sectors etc.

·       Think tanks usually promote social and political change using their research to influence public opinion.

·       Think tanks’ reports can bring a major role in helping government administrators adopt major policy agendas.

Think Tank Models

Traditionally known think tank model, that began before the invention of an internet, in general, is known as a “one roof” model (Goodman, n.d). Under that model organizations bring a diverse group of scholars meet under one roof, to interact face to face due to communication barriers remotely unlike today. Now, the Internet has made communication easy, immediate, and inexpensive. So, the second model called “without roof or wall” has emerged especially for those who are advanced in the virtual tech. These are much less expensive than the old one (the one roof model).  Organizations contract with outside think tank organizations rather than employ them.

There is another think tank model recently developed by  Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASISD), one of China's top science think tanks, has published a new theory and methodology to help think tanks conduct scientific, fact-based research and create innovative and constructive solutions (Zhihao, 2019). The new theory or research model is called Data Information Intelligence Solution (DIIS), a model that examines the interrelation of research orientation, process and methodology. There are some systematic issues with the research think tanks such as their purpose, research focus and methodology, as well as how to evaluate them. To tackle such issues, The DIIS model approaches the challenges by breaking think tank research into three dimensions: research orientation, process and methodology, each containing smaller, interrelated components (Zhihao, 2019). When applied to a 3D (xyz-axis), the interrelation of these 3Ds can form a cube-like structure where researchers and administrators can intuitively identify their correlations and find the right tool or basis for the project. For example, if researchers want to examine the meaning of a certain data set (process-axis) for a general analysis (methodology-axis), they can easily follow the axis on the cube and find analytic hierarchy process suitable for the task (Zhihao, 2019). Likewise, when administrators want to find the principles for creating a solution (process-axis) in an evidence-oriented project (orientation-axis), then they can find feasible and reliable priorities.

2.       Highlight 2–3 of them, and discuss some key points about each

Though there are diversified think tank methods or types, the following four types of think tanks are usually observed (Ladi, 2015):

·       Ideological tank: thsis refers to organizations that have a clearly specified political or, more broadly, ideological philosophy such as “advocacy tanks,” institutions founded to research and solve problems and to lobby legislators to adopt their solutions.

·       Specialist tank: this includes institutes that have a thematic focus. The most common subjects are foreign and public policy, but think tanks also specialize in other issues, such as the environment.  

·       Institutional tank:  this include organizations that work not at the national level but at either the regional level, such as the U.S. state-level think tanks, or the supranational level, such as the those based in Brussels that are concerned with the affairs of the European Union (EU).

·        “Think and Do” tanks: these are those that are active at a more practical level, such as in the funding of charity projects, and have similarities to that of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).

 

 

Reference

· Ladi, S. (2015, January 13). Think tank. Encyclopedia Britannica.                            https://www.britannica.com/topic/think-tank.

·       Merriam-Webster. (n.d.). Think tank. In Merriam-Webster.com dictionary. Retrieved March               14, 2021, from:

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/think%20tank.

·       Goodman, J., (n.d). What Is A Think Tank?                                                                                                   https://www.atlasnetwork.org/assets/uploads/misc/chapter-3-what-is-athink-tank-              goodman.pdf.

·  Longley, R., (2020). What Is a Think Tank? Definition and Examples.               https://www.thoughtco.com/top-think-tanks-in-washington-dc-1038694

· Zhihao, Z., (2019). Top think tank proposes model to improve research. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201906/27/WS5d1463c2a3103dbf1432a9be.html

 

Think Tank: Group Decision Making - Techniques

Introduction

“From the Seven Wonders of The World to super-fast fiber-optic broadband, many of humanity’s greatest achievements were not the work of a single person alone, but of a whole team working together toward a common goal,” Andrei (2020) said in his blog airfocus.com. That indicates though building an effective and perfective group is not that straightforward, result on decision making from a collective idea is most of the time so much effective. Once one has had a practical team who can act optimally together, one needs to start making some group decisions (Andrei, 2020). Group decision-making techniques are approaches for structuring team members’ connections to improve the value of a collective decision by minimizing roadblocks and barriers (“Group Decision-Making Techniques”, n/d). The following are some of the popular group decision making techniques:

·       Delphi Method known as “iterative convergence”-   that relies on the expertise of a team to assist in coming to complex decisions.

·      Brainstorming- each group members need to generate thought ideas and they can use that brain storming ideas as bases.

·    Nominal Group Technique (NGT) - the Nominal Group Technique is essentially a more structured form of brainstorming.

·       Ranking- this is based on participants’ ranking average scores   

·       Weighted Scoring - When applying this system to one’s decision-making process, the assigned team must evaluate each item on the list of solutions and assign criteria like Business Value, Costs, and Risks.

·       Stepladder Technique: The stepladder technique is a group decision-making strategy that staggers the entry of members into a group and allows groups to form a final decision collaboratively and collectively rather than having an outside party derive the group decision (“Group Decision-Making Techniques”, n/d).

              I will be discussing Delphi Techniques and Nominal Group Technique (NGT) in more detail and see the how they compare to each other.

1.       Delphi Technique?

The Delphi technique provides a board of directors with a systematic, simplified structure for generating, examining, and prioritizing ideas and solutions (Director Point, n/d). This is a technique that is highly needed for boards tasked with making high level decisions. Decision-makers utilize a series of questionnaires to extract ideas and solutions with an anonymous panel of experts. The panel’s anonymity is upheld by a coordinator who merely serves as a cooperator between the two groups (between decision-makers and anonymous panel of experts). The coordinator can manage the questionnaire and cleans up responses for clarity and relevancy before sending the responses to decision-makers. Panelists could provide additional commentary on their own responses and the responses of other members.

In Delphi method questionnaires are administered in four rounds and coordinators can repeat the fourth round of questioning until decision-makers reach their required decision (Director Point, n/d).

·       1^st Round: the first questionnaire is typically open-ended concerning with identifying what to know and initial insights (questionnaires are usually sent via email, fax, etc. to the anonymous experts). Decision-makers can adopt a narrowed and focused structure if they do have researched the situations ahead.

·       2^nd Round: the second questionnaire presents panelists with the decision-makers’ summary of first round responses for commentary and clarification. Besides answering 1^st round follow-up questions, panelists are asked to identify and rank (by priority) solutions or action items.

·       3^rd Round: Panelists are asked to review the decision-makers’ responses to their prioritizations and provide revisions or clarifications as necessary.

·       4^th Round: In this round, the experts receive the decision-makers’ summary of any and all items over which the panel has yet to form a strong consensus. Also included is a summary which recaps all items for which a consensus has been reached. If a clear consensus emerges after the final round of surveys, the exercise is finished. As additionally or optionally, the members may be asked to rank or rate the final decision options to have a thoughtful insight.

Allowing members to work independently, the Delphi technique can encourage reduce social misusing, accountability, equalize participation, eliminate the biasing effect of dominant members.

It’s clear that the Delphi Technique provides a considerably more thoughtful and detailed examination of ideas and evaluation of actionable priorities when compared to that of nominal group technique. Based on prior researches groups structured according to the Delphi technique are more satisfied than both nominal and other consensus groups (“Group Decision-Making Techniques”, n/d). However, the Delphi process can take a longer time and it eliminates direct interaction among group members (Decision makers, and Panel experts are in complete separation but connected by facilitators).

2.       The Nominal Group Technique (NGT)

Nominal Group Technique helps to generating and evaluating ideas by team members. It is a type of brainstorming but well-structured approach that results in a final group decision (“Group Decision-Making Techniques”, n/d). The nominal group technique typically involves the following steps:

• Write ideas in private: After the problem at hand is understood, members silently generate their ideas in writing. No discussion among members is permitted at this point.
• Take turns reporting ideas: Members take turns reporting their ideas to the group, one at a time, while a facilitator records them on blackboard. Again, no group discussion occurs during this step.
• Discuss ideas: Next, group members discuss the ideas that have been recorded. The main purpose of this discussion is to clarify, criticize, or defend the stated ideas.
• Vote on ideas: Each member privately and anonymously prioritizes the ideas. This nominal voting step may involve a rank-ordering system, a weighted voting procedure, or some similar mechanism for reporting preferences.
• Calculate the group decision: The group decision is calculated mathematically, based on the vote described earlier. The final decision is the pooled outcome of the individual votes.
• Repeat if necessary: Some variations of the nominal group technique allow the generation-discussion-vote cycle described previously to be repeated until an appropriate decision is reached.

The nominal group technique was created to overcome several decision-making roadblocks. The highly structured and task-focused nature of this strategy is thought to encourage the efficient use of time by reducing the tendency for nonproductive departures and hostile arguments. Like Delphi method, members may also experience an increased sense of accountability and a decreased propensity for social loafing, because members are required to publicly state their written ideas.

Although it has so vital practices, there are people who claim that the structured nature of the NGT may bound creativity (“Group Decision-Making Techniques”, n/d). This also express less decision satisfaction than depend on the Delphi technique.

Reference

·       Andrei, (2020). The Ultimate Guide to Group Decision Making - Techniques, Tools and Strategies.

     https://airfocus.com/blog/guide-to-group-decision-making-techniques-tools/

·         “Group Decision-Making Techniques”, (n/d). Group Decision-Making Techniques.                                     http://psychology.iresearchnet.com/industrial-organizational-psychology/group-dynamics/group- decision-making-techniques/

·    Director Point, (n/d). The Delphi Technique Cheat Sheet.                                                                                  https://landing.directorpoint.com/blog/delphi-technique-cheat-sheet/

 

Think Tank: Cloud Services and Cloud Vendor Management

Introduction

For this discussion board I chose the 2021 Horizon Report, about information security, to discuss one trend and one key technology. From the trend section we will be discussing about the Technology Trend and Cloud Vendor Management from the key technology.

1.       Technology Trend

The technological environment that we exploit constitute multiple types of technologies (Kelly et al., 2021). We integrate these technologies and the services that these techs give into our professional and personal lives. The ever-changing features of this information technology needs strong safety mechanisms and depend on security experts.  Let’s see the following tech trend example as stated on the article which emerge to experience in higher education:

•          Borderless Networks / Network without Boundary

Services and data usage in higher institution are increasingly transforming to cloud-based services rather than campus-based or in person services. Network endpoint devices such as laptops, tablets or iPads, smartphones are easily portable tools that are not confined to the campus anymore. That convenience cause to expanding the boundaries of the digital world significantly which needs more monitoring system and protection. So, there is high likelihood of institutions which are not able to separate their own endpoint devices and their network servers to experience weakened incident response control and higher incident recovery times. According to the 2021 Horizon Report article, the evidence for the higher education moving their services to cloud services is that the market trend of cloud computing. Based on that article, it is estimated that cloud computing in the education sector will grow from a $15.3 billion market in 2019 to an $89.5 billion market by 2027.

As virtual educational institutions significantly increase, bad actors have also advanced with more sophisticated and professionalized attacking strategies, breaches, and ransomware in higher education. However, institutions have been creating “incident management” departments with dedicated incident leadership and support staff.

The driving forces here are the introduction of modern and mobile technological devices, advancement of networking, and the convenience that those integration offer to higher education services virtually.

2.       Cloud Vendor Management

Vendor management is not a new feature for higher educational IT operations. The incorporation of vendor products and services into the institution’s environment, however, raises persistent challenges and questions around the relevancy of that vendor with the educational organization’s budget, culture, values, and requirements (Kelly et al., 2021). Such integration invites IT leaders to need to thoughtfully and continually manage the relationship of the vendor with the education institutions. Effective vendor–institution relationships depend on the configuration of mutual goals, consistent communication among major stakeholders, and cooperative approaches to assist, solve problems, and service improvement. Institutions may need special assistant with the cloud services as most of them are new to the virtual technology. Because that ensures their success to convey all the skills, and knowledge their students and campus staff need.

The main driving force why there is a need to have the cloud vendor management is that many of the institutions do not have enough internal tech experts, resources, and staff for to support with cloud-based services in-house and protecting those services. They are not in place of enough cloud tech capability as that of larger cloud service providers. Therefore, institutions’ focus will be moving away from managing the virtual services themselves towards managing their relationships with the vendors who support them.

Reference

 Kelly, B., et al., (2021). 2021 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report, Information Security Edition (Boulder, CO:                    EDUCAUSE, 2021). 

https://library.educause.edu//media/files/library/2021/2/2021_horizon_report_infosec.pdf?la=en&hash=6F5254070245E2F4234C3FDE6AA1AA00ED7960FB